Hitting for the Cycle
A Sunday Review - February 6, 2022
📖 What I’m Reading:
Identifying Risk via ATC Projections – Round 1: Ariel Cohen
Ariel Cohen does a fantastic job in his Rotoballer article outlining projections in general, his Average Total Cost (“ATC”) projections, and how ATC assesses projection volatility risk. The ATC projection is one of the few projection systems that I rely on each season, and it’s free via fangraphs.com. In this article, Ariel explains three different types of risk metrics that he has developed to bring even more value from ATC. The metrics are helpful in assessing parameter risk (the range of how projections differ on a player) and profile risk (the impact of any one category stat associated with that player). The theory explanation is great, but Ariel takes it one step further by providing practical examples of how you can utilize these risk metrics for drafting purposes along with visual risk grids for each player along their current NFBC ADP.
🎧 What I’m Hearing:
Playing Along with the Pitching Model, Pricey Prospects in Redraft Leagues & Draft & Hold Basics - Rates & Barrels (January 27th episode)
The first 30 minutes of the episode is a good discussion and review of the Pitching+ model (Stuff+ and Command/Location+ metrics) that Eno Sarris has developed with Max Bay (current Houston Astros R&D Analyst). In all honesty, it’s a difficult metric for me to fully trust in my pitching evaluation due to it constantly evolving (not a bad thing), and not fully appreciating everything that goes into it. However, over the past year, Eno has provided more clarity into how these metrics work and their year to year predictive value via his Athletic articles/podcasts. I also trust Eno with his ability to evaluate pitching. So, at the moment, I use the Stuff+ metric as a way to break ties between two pitchers or a small group of pitchers going around the same draft spots. Stuff+ is described as the physical properties of a pitch with the most important aspects being velocity, vertical movement and horizontal movement in that order. A score of 100 on these Pitching+ metrics is considered to be league average During the year, Eno provides a spreadsheet that updates these Pitching+ metrics, but you do need to be a subscriber to The Athletic. Good news though, I do have at least two free 30 day passes to unlimited access for The Athletic via this LINK and this LINK. (I may have a couple more free passes so just comment below). After gaining access, you want to go to Eno’s article “Command & Stuff Report: Why should anyone care about Stuff+?” to download the 2021 year end Pitching+ spreadsheet.
📊 Metric of the Week:
SwStr%
Swinging strike percentage (“SwStr%”) is calculated by dividing the total swings and misses of batters over the total pitches thrown by a pitcher. SwStr% helps to validate whether a pitcher is over or underperforming their strikeout rate (K%). Generally, a pitcher’s SwStr% correlates with K% by slightly over double (e.g., 11% SwStr% should equal a 22.2% K%). So, if a pitcher’s K% is way more than double their SwStr%, than that pitcher’s strikeout total is most likely over-stated. Target starting pitchers that have a SwStr% greater than 11.5% for above average league results.
💬 Quote of the Week:
“The secret of change is to focus all of your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new.” - Socrates