Hitting for the Cycle #23
A Sunday Review - July 3, 2022
📖 What I’m Reading:
Possibly the single biggest mistake - Rob Silver
A twitter post from NFBC player Rob Silver that generated some insightful things to think about when evaluating recent player performance and the unhealthy reliance on them for future predictability. One of the main points I took from Rob’s opinion was that you might think you’re making a good long-term decision when in fact you probably just got lucky. Unlike most comments on someone’s tweet, this is actually a “rabbit hole” worth going down that generated some insightful and helpful information. Many opinions on the topic ranging from the short-term being helpful to gauge playing time for hitters and to identify if a pitcher has a new pitch or changes to movement and velocity, to utilizing rolling average graphs (mentioned in last week’s Hitting for the Cycle #22), to focusing on rest of season projections and skill stabilization points and a couple great articles that Rob referenced on pitchers that is worth your time:
🎧 What I’m Hearing:
Hacks & Jacks Episode 49 - Using Expected Stat Limitations to Win Trades
Hacks & Jacks, hosted by Joe Gallina and Scott Chu, is another great podcast offered by the Pitcher List podcast network. Around the 41:30 minute mark, Joe and Scott go into a very helpful in depth discussion on why it is critical to understand the limitations of expected stats, and also how one can use those limitations to their benefit in trading leagues. Scott uses the example of expected batting average to explain what expected stats do and don’t tell you. In addition, Scott further drives home the point that when we as fantasy players get too enamored with one single metric that will blindside us in missing some type of other relevant information that should be considered. Scott also explains that you can use the over reliance of expected stats to make better trades as well as keep yourself grounded when making waiver wire picks so as to not chase the last two weeks of a players production. Expected stats do a fantastic job describing and confirming what actually happened did happen, but remember that may not be the result of a real skill change for the player. A really great 20 minute explanation that it is worth your time.
📊 Metric of the Week:
Launch Angle (LA)
Launch Angle is simply the vertical angle degree of the ball when it leaves a player’s bat. MLB.com provides this general guideline as to what launch angle corresponds to following batted ball types:
Ground ball: Less than 10 degrees
Line drive: 10-25 degrees
Fly ball: 25-50 degrees
Pop up: Greater than 50 degrees
A launch angle between 8 to 32 degrees is considered to be the “sweet spot” for a hit. However, on its own launch angle is not very helpful, and needs to be combined with exit velocity to describe a hitter’s quality of contact. There are always exceptions, but generally a ball hit in the launch angle sweet spot with an exit velocity of greater than 95mph gives a hitter the greatest probability for better outcomes at the plate.
A fun research tool from Baseball Savant breaks down hit probabilities by launch angle and exit velocity for each season HERE.
💬 Quote of the Week:
“You may not think you’re going to make it. You may want to quit. But if you keep your eye on the ball, you can accomplish anything.”
- Hank Aaron