Hitting for the Cycle #16
A Sunday Review - May 7, 2022
📖 What I’m Reading:
Twelve MLB hitters doing things right but getting the wrong results - Eno Sarris
If you like long article titles (I even technically shorten it above) and fantastic analysis, then this gem from Eno Sarris is what you’ve been waiting for in trying to find some early season hitters. I enjoy these classic good process bad result player lists. Eno breaks down the early result noise by trying to uncover the positive signals from players who have a top chase rate (o-swing%), contact rate and barrel rate (Brls%). Eno provides the list of players and then goes into an in-depth analysis on 4 of them. With articles from The Athletic you do need to be a subscriber. Good news if you don’t have a current subscription as I do have five free 30 day passes to unlimited access. One free pass is available via this LINK (just comment below if you’re looking for more).
🎧 What I’m Hearing:
BaseballHQ Radio 2022 Show #16 with Derek Carty
One of my long standing favorite fantasy baseball podcasts is BaseballHQ Radio. Patrick Davitt is a fantastic host who is prepared, asks great questions, and gives his guests the ability to explain their process and decision making. Always look forward to these weekly episodes. (Quick aside, I was the person who suggested the heading “Boons and Banes” for the podcast). This episode with Derek Carty, creator of The BAT and BAT X projection systems, digs into the following key topics that you should always be mindful of when playing fantasy baseball:
Metric stability and how bigger the sample size the better.
Combining the scout knowledge of why it happened with the what happened of projections.
Challenge of trying to stay objective despite the results and focus on the process.
Utilizing probabilities and playing the match-ups. Understanding that in the short-term anything can happen, and that the long run is not predictive of short-term results.
Power of compounding better decisions over time will yield to better results in the long run of playing fantasy baseball.
📊 Metric of the Week:
Chase Rate (O-Swing%)
Chase rate or more commonly known/labeled as O-Swing% (here is the current data from Fangraphs and Baseball Savant) is the percentage of the time a batter swings at pitches outside the strike zone. We are looking to analyze what hitters have a good or bad plate discipline. League-average O-Swing% is just under of 32% so far this year.
💬 Quote of the Week:
“The experience of being in a batting slump is that it feels like a labyrinth. One feels trapped, alone, and disoriented. When you finally get out you are relieved and can’t believe how easy it was to find the exit. Unfortunately, that exit eventually leads to another labyrinth.”
- Joey Votto