Hitting for the Cycle #10
A Sunday Review - March 6, 2022
📖 What I’m Reading:
Introducing the MLB Lineup Tracker - Mike Kurland
Sometimes a fantasy baseball tool is introduced that can really impact your game, and the MLB Lineup Tracker created by Mike Kurland with the help of Jon Anderson is that tool. I can’t wait to incorporate this into my regular season. My first thought is to incorporate the tool as part of my FAAB/waiver wire prep each week to help evaluate players to pickup but as important on who to drop. There is so much information available to us in evaluating players. Metrics are important in deciphering trends of how players are going to perform in the future, but sometimes in this game, it can just come down to who is having the most at-bats. What hitters are going to maximize the opportunities of accumulating those counting stats we desperately need during the season. Check out the MLB Lineup Tracker along with the Mike’s Spring Training Lineup Tracker all HERE on the SK Playbook website. With the Spring Training Lineup Tracker, Mike does all the due diligence in monitoring and analyzing preseason lineups that can really provide you with an edge in who to target late in drafts. I encourage you to check out the article, and get familiar with the tool now before the season starts. We are going to have a season, right?!
🎧 What I’m Hearing:
Under the Radar: Season 4 Episode 9
Nando Di Fino, Derek VanRiper and Ian Kahn with a very entertaining episode complete with Zelda references, Ariel Cohen impressions, and of course some fantasy baseball insight. Starting at the 13 minute mark, an interesting point raised by Derek VanRiper to ponder. When constructing your roster during a draft, do decisions on players really come down to all those metrics you’ve spent time analyzing or is it more of snap decision dictated by other factors in the moment? Perhaps it’s the decisions by other managers or maybe your decisions are still being driven by the ADP list that is staring you in the face. Some managers would say that’s why you group players into tiers. Whatever player or players remain in said tiers is who you pick. Having some valuation system either by rank or dollars can streamline your draft. However, do you always stay completely committed to those valuations? For the majority of managers in a draft, you are really balancing numbers, tendencies of other managers in the draft room, and sometimes a gut feeling. It’s never just one thing which can make us indecisive. This was followed up by Ian Kahn who had an interesting mental trick when you’re choosing between two players. Flip a coin. Not for the reason of seeing the result as that’s irrelevant. The reason to do this is to determine what you hope it lands on. That’s the player who you should draft. By the way, you’ve probably already made the decision in your subconscious before the flip, but a number of external factors are interfering with your decision making. When analysis paralysis strikes, sometimes it’s the simple tools that can move us forward.
📊 Metric of the Week:
SBO%
(SB + CS) / (BB + Singles + HBP)
Trying to predict speed might be a fool’s errand, but like all fantasy baseball metrics, we are pulled in the direction to find certainty. SBO% is an approximate measure of how often a baserunner will take advantage of their running opportunities. This obviously is a descriptive metric of the prior years. However, it can provide a comparative measure when looking at each player and team which you can use to determine whether a player might project for more or less stolen bases in the next year. A consistent propensity to attempt stolen bases might be an indicator of more opportunities in the future which could lead to more stolen bases. Again, there are many factors in play here, including team running philosophy, managerial strategy, lineup position, the “desire” of the player to run, etc. The average player’s 2021 SBO% was 7%.
💬 Quote of the Week:
"If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything."
- Mark Twain