A related challenge: as part of prep, most of us look at the player pool for undervalued assets - those we value higher than the market. In an auction league, I have some guys I expect to be in on the bidding before we even start.
But building a list of potentially undervalued assets turns those assets into *targets*, at which point I'm more likely to chase them up... Above my original price. They were only targets because of the hypothetical low cost!
Great observation, and I think it's a trap we all fall into without realizing it.
This sounds to me like the endowment effect. Where we overvalue things simply because we feel ownership over them.
That pre-draft target list is now a list of players we are chasing! The undervalued asset now becomes "my guy" I have to get. Now you're bidding to not lose him rather than bidding to acquire value. It's all very circular.
I think what could be helpful is building the target list, but next to every name, write down the ceiling price where the value disappears. Then, commit to that number, not the player. If the bidding passes your number, let him go. That's also why having player tiers can be helpful.
Good post.
A related challenge: as part of prep, most of us look at the player pool for undervalued assets - those we value higher than the market. In an auction league, I have some guys I expect to be in on the bidding before we even start.
But building a list of potentially undervalued assets turns those assets into *targets*, at which point I'm more likely to chase them up... Above my original price. They were only targets because of the hypothetical low cost!
Great observation, and I think it's a trap we all fall into without realizing it.
This sounds to me like the endowment effect. Where we overvalue things simply because we feel ownership over them.
That pre-draft target list is now a list of players we are chasing! The undervalued asset now becomes "my guy" I have to get. Now you're bidding to not lose him rather than bidding to acquire value. It's all very circular.
I think what could be helpful is building the target list, but next to every name, write down the ceiling price where the value disappears. Then, commit to that number, not the player. If the bidding passes your number, let him go. That's also why having player tiers can be helpful.
Thanks for the comment!